Dengue and the Social-Ecological Landscape: proposed collaboration for SESYNC postdoctoral fellows mentorship
Working with Dr. Sadie J. Ryan as primary mentor, with collaborative mentorship of Dr. Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, a postdoctoral fellow is invited to develop new projects in spatially-explicit SES approaches in Ecuador, and to push current project ideas forward. This is an opportunity offered through the SESYNC Postdoctoral Fellow Immersion Program. Ultimately, we seek to answer questions about the SES context for climate-driven vector borne diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika, for which the only control measure available is vector control at multiple scales. These answers can guide and define early warning systems and public health education campaigns.
We seek a postdoctoral fellow to apply through SESYNC to develop projects with us. Postdoctoral fellows will be in residence at SESYNC, and all prospective candidates must submit a pre-screening application before Oct. 24, through the SESYNC application process. (CLICK HERE)
Project overview/sandbox:
The increasing burden of dengue fever in Latin America is creating a public health emergency in many regions. Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne arboviral disease, causing significant morbidity and mortality throughout the tropics and subtropics. Given that there is no vaccine yet available, and that treatment is largely palliative, creating tools to anticipate the timing and severity of dengue outbreaks are important to public health strategies. In Machala, Ecuador, on the border with Peru, dengue is hyperendemic, with all four strains co-circulating (DENV1-4) in peak season. Machala is a city of around 250,000 people; it is a port city, with a moderately heterogeneous socioeconomic makeup, differential access to healthcare, and dengue awareness campaign coverage. Previous studies have shown that climate is a key trigger of dengue outbreaks in the region. A decentralized vector control and public health agency approach make Ecuador uniquely positioned to adopt locally modeled approaches into management.
Since 2014, we have been leading a long-term active and passive dengue fever surveillance study funded by DOD GEIS. This study has generated multiple seasons of spatially explicit data on lab confirmed dengue cases, microclimate, vector abundance, and household demographics. This complements a longer -term record of weekly dengue cases recorded by the Ministry of Health since 2003, and spatially explicit case data available from 2010, which has been georeferenced by our study team. In addition to specific case data, we have information at the city and regional level on vector control, and vector surveillance. Dating further back, and at larger scales, we have access to largescale epidemiological data on dengue, as well as vector data.
Using these multiscalar epidemiological and entomological data, we propose that many spatially explicit models can be undertaken to describe increasing dengue risk in Ecuador. For example, we will explore ecological niche modeling (ENM) for both vectors and case data, and contrast this with other mapped model approaches, such as thermal response models for transmission risk (e.g. Mordecai et al. 2013, for malaria). In addition to these epi/ento datasets, we have a series of multiple scales of climate data and data products, and spatial imagery available. These have been explored in our system both as potential early warning systems (EWS) (Stewart Ibarra and Lowe 2013; Escobar et al. 2015), and as inputs in small-scale models of the social ecological system (SES) (Stewart Ibarra et al. 2014; Stewart Ibarra et al. 2013). Through collaborations with in-country agencies, we have demographic and spatially derived census indices at multiple scales. We have previously undertaken modeling approaches to understanding the social-ecological influences on dengue transmission, and how perceptions and knowledge may interface with public health in Machala (Ibarra et al. 2014).
With a larger data set, and more data streams, we are ready to expand on this collaboration. In 2015-2016, we have added additional field sites in Ecuador to study entomological and demographic characteristics in different climate regimes. This component of the project will generate additional data streams for analysis, and for the interested candidate, the opportunity to assist further with the design of data collection.
References:
Escobar, Luis E., Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, et al. 2015. “A Global Map of Suitability for Coastal Vibrio Cholerae under Current and Future Climate Conditions.” Acta Tropica 149: 202–11.
Ibarra, Anna M. Stewart, Valerie A. Luzadis, Mercy J. Borbor Cordova, Mercy Silva, Tania Ordoñez, Efraín Beltrán Ayala, and Sadie J. Ryan. 2014. “A Social-Ecological Analysis of Community Perceptions of Dengue Fever and Aedes Aegypti in Machala, Ecuador.” BMC Public Health 14 (1): 1135.
Mordecai, Erin A., Krijn P. Paaijmans, Leah R. Johnson, Christian Balzer, Tal Ben-Horin, Emily de Moor, Amy McNally, et al. 2013. “Optimal Temperature for Malaria Transmission Is Dramatically Lower than Previously Predicted.” Ecology Letters 16 (1): 22–30.
Stewart Ibarra, Anna M, and Rachel Lowe. 2013. “Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador.” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 88 (5): 971–81.
Stewart Ibarra, Anna M., Angel G. Munoz, Sadie J. Ryan, Mercy J. Borbor, et al. 2014. “Spatiotemporal Clustering, Climate Periodicity, and Social-Ecological Risk Factors for Dengue during an Outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010.” BMC Infectious Diseases 14: 610.
Stewart Ibarra, Anna M., Sadie J. Ryan, Efrain Beltrán, Raúl Mejía, Mercy Silva, and Ángel Muñoz. 2013. “Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control.” PLOS ONE 8 (11): e78263.
Working with Dr. Sadie J. Ryan as primary mentor, with collaborative mentorship of Dr. Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, a postdoctoral fellow is invited to develop new projects in spatially-explicit SES approaches in Ecuador, and to push current project ideas forward. This is an opportunity offered through the SESYNC Postdoctoral Fellow Immersion Program. Ultimately, we seek to answer questions about the SES context for climate-driven vector borne diseases, such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika, for which the only control measure available is vector control at multiple scales. These answers can guide and define early warning systems and public health education campaigns.
We seek a postdoctoral fellow to apply through SESYNC to develop projects with us. Postdoctoral fellows will be in residence at SESYNC, and all prospective candidates must submit a pre-screening application before Oct. 24, through the SESYNC application process. (CLICK HERE)
Project overview/sandbox:
The increasing burden of dengue fever in Latin America is creating a public health emergency in many regions. Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne arboviral disease, causing significant morbidity and mortality throughout the tropics and subtropics. Given that there is no vaccine yet available, and that treatment is largely palliative, creating tools to anticipate the timing and severity of dengue outbreaks are important to public health strategies. In Machala, Ecuador, on the border with Peru, dengue is hyperendemic, with all four strains co-circulating (DENV1-4) in peak season. Machala is a city of around 250,000 people; it is a port city, with a moderately heterogeneous socioeconomic makeup, differential access to healthcare, and dengue awareness campaign coverage. Previous studies have shown that climate is a key trigger of dengue outbreaks in the region. A decentralized vector control and public health agency approach make Ecuador uniquely positioned to adopt locally modeled approaches into management.
Since 2014, we have been leading a long-term active and passive dengue fever surveillance study funded by DOD GEIS. This study has generated multiple seasons of spatially explicit data on lab confirmed dengue cases, microclimate, vector abundance, and household demographics. This complements a longer -term record of weekly dengue cases recorded by the Ministry of Health since 2003, and spatially explicit case data available from 2010, which has been georeferenced by our study team. In addition to specific case data, we have information at the city and regional level on vector control, and vector surveillance. Dating further back, and at larger scales, we have access to largescale epidemiological data on dengue, as well as vector data.
Using these multiscalar epidemiological and entomological data, we propose that many spatially explicit models can be undertaken to describe increasing dengue risk in Ecuador. For example, we will explore ecological niche modeling (ENM) for both vectors and case data, and contrast this with other mapped model approaches, such as thermal response models for transmission risk (e.g. Mordecai et al. 2013, for malaria). In addition to these epi/ento datasets, we have a series of multiple scales of climate data and data products, and spatial imagery available. These have been explored in our system both as potential early warning systems (EWS) (Stewart Ibarra and Lowe 2013; Escobar et al. 2015), and as inputs in small-scale models of the social ecological system (SES) (Stewart Ibarra et al. 2014; Stewart Ibarra et al. 2013). Through collaborations with in-country agencies, we have demographic and spatially derived census indices at multiple scales. We have previously undertaken modeling approaches to understanding the social-ecological influences on dengue transmission, and how perceptions and knowledge may interface with public health in Machala (Ibarra et al. 2014).
With a larger data set, and more data streams, we are ready to expand on this collaboration. In 2015-2016, we have added additional field sites in Ecuador to study entomological and demographic characteristics in different climate regimes. This component of the project will generate additional data streams for analysis, and for the interested candidate, the opportunity to assist further with the design of data collection.
References:
Escobar, Luis E., Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, et al. 2015. “A Global Map of Suitability for Coastal Vibrio Cholerae under Current and Future Climate Conditions.” Acta Tropica 149: 202–11.
Ibarra, Anna M. Stewart, Valerie A. Luzadis, Mercy J. Borbor Cordova, Mercy Silva, Tania Ordoñez, Efraín Beltrán Ayala, and Sadie J. Ryan. 2014. “A Social-Ecological Analysis of Community Perceptions of Dengue Fever and Aedes Aegypti in Machala, Ecuador.” BMC Public Health 14 (1): 1135.
Mordecai, Erin A., Krijn P. Paaijmans, Leah R. Johnson, Christian Balzer, Tal Ben-Horin, Emily de Moor, Amy McNally, et al. 2013. “Optimal Temperature for Malaria Transmission Is Dramatically Lower than Previously Predicted.” Ecology Letters 16 (1): 22–30.
Stewart Ibarra, Anna M, and Rachel Lowe. 2013. “Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador.” The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 88 (5): 971–81.
Stewart Ibarra, Anna M., Angel G. Munoz, Sadie J. Ryan, Mercy J. Borbor, et al. 2014. “Spatiotemporal Clustering, Climate Periodicity, and Social-Ecological Risk Factors for Dengue during an Outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, in 2010.” BMC Infectious Diseases 14: 610.
Stewart Ibarra, Anna M., Sadie J. Ryan, Efrain Beltrán, Raúl Mejía, Mercy Silva, and Ángel Muñoz. 2013. “Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control.” PLOS ONE 8 (11): e78263.